Winning the Presidency via Economic Anxiety
(By: Rene Velez 10/15/08)
These days no matter where you turn your head the talk of the town is how bad the economy is. Driving along the city of Miami you can almost feel the fearful pause of a normally bustling city. Where the culture is often over the top on glamour, fashion and in showing your achievements through acquisition, now everyone is simply watchful of the dark clouds above us. Even in the sunny subtropical days that are common in south Florida, the mood is that of a raining day.
Judging by the news of sour profits, tight credit markets, government bailouts and that all too ugly word recession, the mood is somber at best all through out the country. If it were not for the repeated interruptions of news flashes of the presidential elections, I think some people might just be ready to jump out windows. This gloomy mood makes me ponder on the effects of our current economic situation on the elections. Not that this is new but I have some of my own thoughts on the matter.
The Art of Expression in Saying Nothing
All in all I like Obama, but I am not convinced he is capable to meet all the challenges before us. He has attracted many citizens to his side by virtue of having a gifted tongue. He is eloquent, rhythmic and able to captivate the masses. He is so god at his oratory work, I am surprised that he has not been called the coming antichrist. Not because I think he is or should be viewed that way, but his presence is somewhat unnerving. Yet for all his skill he’s not offered anything any 4 year economics student at a decent college couldn’t conjure up. Like all presidents he lacks substance in what he says. His track record as a community organizer hardly is a training ground for world politics and for being the leader of the free world. His track record on taking positions on senate votes is lackluster, mainly because he took no definitive positions on crucial votes. Although it’s not uncommon for presidential candidates not to take hard positions while campaigning, as a measured way of staying out of controversy, nothing he has said compels me to vote for him over John McCain.
Popular Support in an Economic Downturn
Lets face it, in the words of Bill Clinton; “it’s the economy stupid”. There is but one key law of physics during an election year when the economy is sour. “ The greater the economic downturn, the greater the propensity of voters to want to switch parties, candidates and to repel the forces of the current administration”. Bad news for McCain and good news for Obama. But why is it that the media doesn’t really say that. My guess is that by saying that people want “change” only because the economy is bad , is like saying that Obama really isn’t qualified. My gut feeling tells me that this race would be a lot more heated and the polls would show a much tighter race if the economy provided a more even playing field.
President by Default
Obama might very well win this election, yet he will live with the fact that the peoples choice was not because he was the better candidate but, rather because people wanted change more than they wanted him. Although this may sound like an undignified way to win the presidency, few candidates would shun the chance to win. However, in those early months as he takes the reins of power and is thrust onto the enormous problems this country faces, his choices better be as good as his oratory skills. I fear that anything short may cost him dearly in the way of political clout. I am not forgetting that we will also likely have a democrat controlled congress. In fact I will go out on a limb and say it may not matter that the democrats control congress. Judging by past performances, the democrats have a way of dividing instead of conquering political agenda. The economy, war, energy, unemployment, inflation, trade deficits, budget deficits and the like will be more than any president has had to handle in a long time. AT least since F.D.R.
Voting with Anxiety
In my mind voters are likely to vote their anxiety. In fact Wall Street may well be experiencing the ebbs and flows of an investing public voting or I should say trading their fears and uneasiness on the future with Obama. The disparity in trading values from day to day for the past few weeks is a tell tale sign of a very uneasy country. Of course many economist will argue this point with me. I should add any economist could well argue the point well against me. But I will offer you this to ponder. A large part of business is about management. And management owes a great deal to psychology. Then logically, the state of mind of a country in economic fear is to vote your anxiety.
McCain’s Timing in History
McCain’s timing is not only off given his ties to the republican party, but he has not shown the diversity and energy that would be required to roll with the punches that have been dealt him. I truly believe as a senior senator of great experience he could have derailed Obama. At minimum he could have turned on a more formidable defense by bringing to light a more comprehensive solution to today’s problems. He did not, and perhaps, he could not. It would be overwhelmingly difficult to up the stakes preceding an election and to take positions that may be contrary to your own parties decisions. Especially, at a time when the country is in such turmoil. This is the equivalent of giving a stick for your opponent to hit you. Although his timing in history is way off, the truth be told nothing convinces me more of our need for change all around. We need change in leadership, and change ideally should come from outside the current established political leadership. This is a plus for Obama.
From the Outside In
Most of my professional life, as a business manager, I have had to contend with bringing about change in business. In order to bring about efficiency and effectiveness change is often required. I have learned through many years people fear change. Change is a difficult thing. Reinventing oneself is not easy. We are after all creatures of habit. It is experience that’s helps make change agents better at what they do. It is the ability to see beyond the current situation and make those finely executed adjustments, through careful decisions that make change agents great. Therein lies my indecision with Obama. But there too begins his promise. His new vision together with the fact that he is a very intelligent and skillful politician, does not preclude effectiveness as a president. To this regard Obama is empirically a leap of faith. That is to say his track history does not precede him. Considering peoples anxiety and overwhelming discontent with congress and the current president, the general population seems to be okay with that. The notion of change coming from the outside is not only palatable, it is welcomed and sought. Obama will win simply because he has a limited amount of exposure to the establishment.
The New Political Landscape
I propose to all that we have a new political landscape. Fear, terrorism, anxiety and poor political governess will promote change and new leadership from outside the established norms of American Government. This is a periless and an exciting time in American politics. The American people will speak out in historic numbers to promote change. If we as a nation can stay charged, then we stand to bring innovation to the way we govern our nation. There is risk however. What happens if the opportunity for change and innovation goes sour? What if this transition point in American politics is trampled because of a few bad decisions and some unanticipated mishaps? What then? Will we have hope? Will the public still support change and innovation? I trust the American Public will. Innovation is a part of the American way of life whether we realize it or not. However, the most palpable driver behind the new political landscape is that the stakes are so high.
In Obama we will trust, and fear not!
(By: Rene Velez 10/15/08)
These days no matter where you turn your head the talk of the town is how bad the economy is. Driving along the city of Miami you can almost feel the fearful pause of a normally bustling city. Where the culture is often over the top on glamour, fashion and in showing your achievements through acquisition, now everyone is simply watchful of the dark clouds above us. Even in the sunny subtropical days that are common in south Florida, the mood is that of a raining day.
Judging by the news of sour profits, tight credit markets, government bailouts and that all too ugly word recession, the mood is somber at best all through out the country. If it were not for the repeated interruptions of news flashes of the presidential elections, I think some people might just be ready to jump out windows. This gloomy mood makes me ponder on the effects of our current economic situation on the elections. Not that this is new but I have some of my own thoughts on the matter.
The Art of Expression in Saying Nothing
All in all I like Obama, but I am not convinced he is capable to meet all the challenges before us. He has attracted many citizens to his side by virtue of having a gifted tongue. He is eloquent, rhythmic and able to captivate the masses. He is so god at his oratory work, I am surprised that he has not been called the coming antichrist. Not because I think he is or should be viewed that way, but his presence is somewhat unnerving. Yet for all his skill he’s not offered anything any 4 year economics student at a decent college couldn’t conjure up. Like all presidents he lacks substance in what he says. His track record as a community organizer hardly is a training ground for world politics and for being the leader of the free world. His track record on taking positions on senate votes is lackluster, mainly because he took no definitive positions on crucial votes. Although it’s not uncommon for presidential candidates not to take hard positions while campaigning, as a measured way of staying out of controversy, nothing he has said compels me to vote for him over John McCain.
Popular Support in an Economic Downturn
Lets face it, in the words of Bill Clinton; “it’s the economy stupid”. There is but one key law of physics during an election year when the economy is sour. “ The greater the economic downturn, the greater the propensity of voters to want to switch parties, candidates and to repel the forces of the current administration”. Bad news for McCain and good news for Obama. But why is it that the media doesn’t really say that. My guess is that by saying that people want “change” only because the economy is bad , is like saying that Obama really isn’t qualified. My gut feeling tells me that this race would be a lot more heated and the polls would show a much tighter race if the economy provided a more even playing field.
President by Default
Obama might very well win this election, yet he will live with the fact that the peoples choice was not because he was the better candidate but, rather because people wanted change more than they wanted him. Although this may sound like an undignified way to win the presidency, few candidates would shun the chance to win. However, in those early months as he takes the reins of power and is thrust onto the enormous problems this country faces, his choices better be as good as his oratory skills. I fear that anything short may cost him dearly in the way of political clout. I am not forgetting that we will also likely have a democrat controlled congress. In fact I will go out on a limb and say it may not matter that the democrats control congress. Judging by past performances, the democrats have a way of dividing instead of conquering political agenda. The economy, war, energy, unemployment, inflation, trade deficits, budget deficits and the like will be more than any president has had to handle in a long time. AT least since F.D.R.
Voting with Anxiety
In my mind voters are likely to vote their anxiety. In fact Wall Street may well be experiencing the ebbs and flows of an investing public voting or I should say trading their fears and uneasiness on the future with Obama. The disparity in trading values from day to day for the past few weeks is a tell tale sign of a very uneasy country. Of course many economist will argue this point with me. I should add any economist could well argue the point well against me. But I will offer you this to ponder. A large part of business is about management. And management owes a great deal to psychology. Then logically, the state of mind of a country in economic fear is to vote your anxiety.
McCain’s Timing in History
McCain’s timing is not only off given his ties to the republican party, but he has not shown the diversity and energy that would be required to roll with the punches that have been dealt him. I truly believe as a senior senator of great experience he could have derailed Obama. At minimum he could have turned on a more formidable defense by bringing to light a more comprehensive solution to today’s problems. He did not, and perhaps, he could not. It would be overwhelmingly difficult to up the stakes preceding an election and to take positions that may be contrary to your own parties decisions. Especially, at a time when the country is in such turmoil. This is the equivalent of giving a stick for your opponent to hit you. Although his timing in history is way off, the truth be told nothing convinces me more of our need for change all around. We need change in leadership, and change ideally should come from outside the current established political leadership. This is a plus for Obama.
From the Outside In
Most of my professional life, as a business manager, I have had to contend with bringing about change in business. In order to bring about efficiency and effectiveness change is often required. I have learned through many years people fear change. Change is a difficult thing. Reinventing oneself is not easy. We are after all creatures of habit. It is experience that’s helps make change agents better at what they do. It is the ability to see beyond the current situation and make those finely executed adjustments, through careful decisions that make change agents great. Therein lies my indecision with Obama. But there too begins his promise. His new vision together with the fact that he is a very intelligent and skillful politician, does not preclude effectiveness as a president. To this regard Obama is empirically a leap of faith. That is to say his track history does not precede him. Considering peoples anxiety and overwhelming discontent with congress and the current president, the general population seems to be okay with that. The notion of change coming from the outside is not only palatable, it is welcomed and sought. Obama will win simply because he has a limited amount of exposure to the establishment.
The New Political Landscape
I propose to all that we have a new political landscape. Fear, terrorism, anxiety and poor political governess will promote change and new leadership from outside the established norms of American Government. This is a periless and an exciting time in American politics. The American people will speak out in historic numbers to promote change. If we as a nation can stay charged, then we stand to bring innovation to the way we govern our nation. There is risk however. What happens if the opportunity for change and innovation goes sour? What if this transition point in American politics is trampled because of a few bad decisions and some unanticipated mishaps? What then? Will we have hope? Will the public still support change and innovation? I trust the American Public will. Innovation is a part of the American way of life whether we realize it or not. However, the most palpable driver behind the new political landscape is that the stakes are so high.
In Obama we will trust, and fear not!
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