The Aviation Conspiracy - That Wasn't

The Aviation Conspiracy- That wasn’t
By: Rene Velez July 27, 2008

For those of you that don’t know, apart from my interest in business, politics and the global economy, I am also an aviation enthusiast and a licensed pilot. Some events in the not so distant past together with current events got me to thinking about the aviation industry as a whole. What lay ahead for an industry that in my opinion, is in for significant change. Or perhaps, I should say evolution.

Just a Thought

There was a time when I used to believe in conspiracy theories. Today, I largely discount them. Why you ask? I have learned two important facts of life and business. (1) Most large organizations that could gain in some way from conspiracy are having too hard a time trying to get the ordinary things right. Great conspiracies require a great deal of alignment and work to carry out. Hence, they usually don’t materialize. (2) In today’s information era it takes a small miracle to keep a secret. Sooner, or later, word gets out and it’s a conspiracy no more. So I am not a conspiracy theory believer. (although they do exist) However, I do think that when a lot of money is involved or at stake and that economic power is put to force…..the consequences are somewhat similar. So what does this have to do with anything? Judge for yourself.

What We Hear in The News

A large part of my comments here have to do with isolated stories and ideas that somehow have formed some linear and logical conclusion in my mind. I must admit, I amaze myself sometimes. Here are the headlines that make up my theory. Not quoted and in my own words.

(1) Airlines Face Challenges Due to High Fuel Prices
(2) Demographics are changing population density in urban settings.
(3) Airlines have Improperly Blamed General Aviation for Flight Delays.
(4) Airlines Want General Aviation to Pay User Fees.
(5) GPS Navigation is Transforming Global Navigation Systems.
(6) Airline Customer Satisfaction At An All Time Low.
(7) FAA Examines Changes in The 51% Rule.
(8) Kit Built Aircraft Outperform Production Aircraft of the Day.
(9) Fractional Ownership Flights Fastest Growing Segment of Aviation.

The Paradigm Shift In Aviation

Personally, I don’t think the airlines will disappear. I do however, think the airlines will change into something other than what they are today. Perhaps, on a smaller and even a nationally subsidized scale. Of course this type of change in a billion dollar industry could create a formidable force against General Aviation. The up and coming industry that I think has a real potential to change. If I am right, it will be one of the biggest changes to mass transit in the current century. (maybe)

Here is the theory……..One day you could drive to your local airport, hop on a small plane, type in your desired destination (say Miami to Orlando, Florida) and the small plane’s navigation system will connect into the aerospace commuter network and que your flight into a domestic air route superhighway. The plane will communicate with you, taxi itself to the runway and takeoff and land automatically, taxi you to the local terminal, while you make phone calls and read the paper. No pilot required!

To the average Joe or Mary this sounds right out of the Jetson’s. But the technology is already here. What does not exist is the infrastructure. And the airlines are worried their days are numbered.

Still don’t believe its here. Read the news on the war in Iraq. Predator, UAV’s (Unmanned Aviation Vehicles) are taking off in Afghanistan, remotely operated by pilots, sitting at a computer, from the USA. (Halfway around the globe!) They are doing reconnasince missions and when called on can even launch weapons and form offensive air to ground attacks or provide troop support. It’s here, its now!

What We Already Know

We are all tired of hearing and reading the stories of passengers who are frustrated with airline service. Delays, lost luggage, security checks, airborne health risks, extra baggage fees, passenger rage. It’s uncivilized to travel by airline these days.

We also know that fractional ownership and private air transport is in fact one of the fastest growing segments of aviation in the last decade. In large part for the corporate elite and wealthy but there are examples of low cost commuter options too.

The kit building industry is producing, safe, easy to build kit airplanes that are superior in performance and efficiency than certified production airplanes. These are kits you can build in your garage!

With general aviation, there is usually no need to arrive in a busy metropolitan airport. Travel to a nearby regional airport, with little to no traffic delays and you can even be picked up right at the door of your plane. No hassle, security checks or long lines. Often times your business professionals have business outside of the major metropolitan areas. So this is very convenient.

GPS navigation is slowly taking over other methods of navigation. In all my years of flying the only time I used NDB was simply to see if it worked. Although ILS approaches are still used today more and more these are being supplanted in use by GPS approaches. In fact some ILS approaches are being discontinued altogether. Every major flight school I have visited recently has trainers with IFR rated GPS systems. And students are requesting to be taught on their use.

One look at the general aviation instrumentation developments of the past decade and the only limit to what you can get is how much you can afford. And this will likely decline in cost much as all technology has come down in price over the years. Yet, the cost today is still within reach of many. The typical businessman who is also a pilot could afford a three dimensional GPS navigation system with terrain features and built in XM weather notification for what a couple of high end laptops would cost.

For $85,000 and about 700 hours of your time, you can buy a 2 seat kit airplane, that you bolt together, glue, add some minor body filler, sand and paint in your two car garage, that will outperform a $200,000 Cessna. Granted the Cessna may have 4 seats but depending on how heavy your payload is you may not be able to use all four seats. This aircraft will have a GPS system, and glass cockpit devices and get fuel efficiency that rivals a Honda Civic’s 30 miles to the gallon. This is close to the efficiency of airline travel. This is here and now.

Conclusion

I truly do not believe in conspiracy theories, but when you have at risk billions of dollars like the airlines and you see that your critical mass and economies of scale are slipping, it’s a fare bet that they will do everything they need to do to put the competition out to dry. It’s capitalism at play. The real danger is that General Aviation is highly fragmented. Many small companies that compete for a small market. Product liability is huge. Many of these companies are thinly capitalized. In fact many exist only because of the entrepreneurship of the owners, their hard work and their absolute love of aviation. If you think about that you can see why so much innovation has occurred in the last two decades. All the right human variables are there.

General Aviation can help our economy and promote transportation and logistical science to a level never before seen on this planet. This is another American dream waiting to happen. If we as a society stand behind General Aviation, we could create many competitive advantages in a global economy. Here are a few ideas that may emerge:

(1) Development of sciences for road traffic congestion and logistics in high density metropolitan areas.
(2) Create new cost effective modes of product distribution.
(3) Development of better satellite technologies.
(4) Enable the portability of Human Capital.
(5) Expansion of regional economies.
The sciences of General Aviation can lend themselves to so many economic models that its contribution could have a similar paradigm shift on the global economy as computers have on the way we do business today.

I guess I should send a few bucks to organizations such as AOPA and EAA. In addition, I should tell people more often; I am a pilot and how important that freedom is to our country. America is one of only a few countries where we have this freedom. Don’t let government and politics stand in front General Aviation. It would be a costly mistake.